British Foreign Secretary Sir Geoffrey Howe will meet President PW Botha on July 23 and 29 and intends to hold talks with jailed ANC leader Nelson Mandela. Howe will also be consulting with US Secretary of State George Shultz some time this month on the South African crisis.

Addressing a press conference in Harare yesterday before flying out to Maputo on the third leg of his Southern Africa shuttle, Howe described talks held earlier in the day with Zimbabwe Prime Minister Robert Mugabe as having been "friendly, open and direct". But the two men differed fundamentally on how to resolve the crisis in South Africa. "We do have different views on how the way forward is to be found," Howe told journalists.

He said there was no change in his government's stance against the imposition of mandatory and comprehensive economic sanctions against South Africa. He described his mission, aimed at fostering negotiations between the South African government and representative black leaders, as "immensely difficult". Howe said he did not yet know if a meeting with Mandela would be possible, but this was "one of the objectives" of his trip to South Africa in late July.

The central position put forward by Zambia and Zimbabwe has been that failure by Britain, the US and West Germany to impose far-reaching sanctions against South Africa will inevitably mean a bloody conflagration in the region. Howe has managed to keep a brave face on his mission -- a journey Thatcher has insisted upon against both Howe's and Foreign Office professionals' better judgment.

Howe has stoically maintained he is undertaking the mission on behalf of the European Economic Community (EEC), rather than Britain. Technically, this is correct. But it has been, above all, Thatcher who has insisted he go ahead despite the severe setbacks suffered through the initial refusal of PW Botha, the ANC, Bishop Desmond Tutu and other black leaders to see him.

What has incensed many Commonwealth leaders about the trip is that they see it as a clear attempt by Thatcher personally to stall the process towards sanctions started by the Commonwealth. The six-month Commonwealth deadline on South Africa expired with the report of the Eminent Persons' Group. That report was clear on two points: Pretoria did not intend meaningful reform, and sanctions should be imposed.

Now, however, by getting the European community to agree to an additional three-month deadline, Thatcher will be able to tell other Commonwealth leaders Britain cannot agree to sanctions until she is able to do so together with her European partners. The seven members of the special Commonwealth Southern Africa Committee, which is due to meet in London next month to consider action on the basis of the EPG report, could thus find themselves stalled.

The unknown variable is the tactical sense of the South African government -- whether it has the good sense, from its own point of view, to make a concession that could let Thatcher out of her corner. Unless that happens, observers consider as real the possibility of the Commonwealth cracking up over Britain's -- or rather Thatcher's -- attitude.